Economía de la Salud


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AES ECONSALUD <[log in para visualizar]>
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Economía de la Salud <[log in para visualizar]>
Mon, 3 Oct 2016 19:12:50 +0200
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The Centre for Health Economics and Policy Innovation, Imperial College Business School invites you to a lunchtime seminar by Steve Gribble, former Director of the Modelling Division at Statistics Canada on:
Using microsimulation to evaluate policies: state of the art and future developments
Abstract: The Microsimulation is a particularly powerful tool for the development of decision-support platforms to simulate and evaluate the impacts of public policies. It has been used in a range of areas of public policy, and it is increasingly valued as an aid to health policy. Microsimulation approaches address the heterogeneity in populations and in individual behaviours that can influence the relative effectiveness of policies across different population groups. It can capture the complex set of inter-relationships between exposure to a policy and the relevant individual, social and economic consequences.

The presentation will provide a review of different microsimulation approaches and their suitability for simulating different types of policies and problems. The presentation will also address the challenge of empirically estimating uncertainty in microsimulation. It will discuss a "whole model" estimation approach, aimed at capturing uncertainty in all model parameters, whether parameters are constrained by data to a range of possible values or are unconstrained, because they are unknown or very poorly measured. 
Bio: Steve Gribble has been Director of the Modelling Division at Statistics Canada until 2010. He has over 25 years of experience and innovation in policy-oriented micro simulation modelling and related statistical analysis. The following are some of the key projects that Steve has led during his career:
LifePaths – A longitudinal microsimulation model of the Canadian population. LifePaths models complete lifetimes of individuals in their family context, in such a way as to reproduce cross-sectional attributes of the Canadian population from 1976 onwards. Components include fertility, mortality, international and internal migration, education, employment (with sub-annual transitions), earnings, taxation, pensions, savings, and wealth. The demographic core of LifePaths is also used in several health-oriented models, e.g. POHEM.
Modgen – A computer language and platform to facilitate the development of microsimulation and agent-based models, in either discrete or continuous time. A subsequent related project ‘Modgen Web’ allows any Modgen model to be published and run over the web.
HPVMM – An interacting agent-based model of sexual behaviour, HPV biology, and vaccination. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework using Latin hypercube sampling.
Date: Thursday 6th October 2016
Time: 12.15 – 13.15
Location: LG19, Imperial College Business school, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ
Please email [log in para visualizar] to register.